COST Earnings History: Beat Rate, Odds, and What the Data Actually Says

Costco reports four times a year, and traders pay close attention. The stock has a reputation for consistency, and the historical earnings record backs that up. With the next report on June 4, 2026, there are 58 days to understand what the data says before making a move.

The Beat Rate

COST has beaten earnings estimates in 13 of its last 16 quarters. That is an 81.2% COST earnings beat rate. Among large-cap retailers, that level of consistency is uncommon.

For context, the average S&P 500 company beats estimates roughly 70% of the time over long periods. Costco runs well above that baseline. The COST earnings history reflects a business that manages analyst expectations tightly and delivers.

What Happens After a Beat

This is where the data turns counterintuitive. Despite beating 81.2% of the time, COST stock only closes higher the next day after a beat 46.2% of the time. That means a beat is already priced in more often than not.

The average next-day move after a COST earnings beat is -0.54%. The stock drifts slightly negative even when the numbers come in above estimates. That is a textbook buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news dynamic.

After a miss, the stock goes down the next day only 33.3% of the time. The market does not punish COST hard when it disappoints, which reflects the underlying strength of the business model.

The Pattern

Three things stand out from the COST earnings odds data. First, beats are the default outcome, not the exception. Second, the market has priced in the beat before the report drops. Third, misses do not crater the stock the way they do for companies with weaker fundamentals or thinner margins.

This creates a low-volatility earnings profile. COST does not tend to gap up 6% or collapse 8% on earnings day. The moves are muted relative to how often the company actually beats. Traders expecting fireworks from the COST earnings odds usually leave disappointed.

What This Means for Traders

One: Do not buy the day before earnings expecting a pop on a beat. With a next-day gain rate of only 46.2% after beats, you are taking a coin-flip, not trading an edge.

Two: The -0.54% average post-beat move means options premiums going into COST earnings are often rich. Selling volatility before the report has a statistical basis in the historical data.

Three: If you want long exposure to COST, the post-earnings drift has historically offered a cleaner entry than the pre-earnings run. All figures in this analysis are pulled directly from ChartOdds, which tracks 16 quarters of verified COST earnings history and updates beat rate data after every report.