GM Earnings History: 93.8% Beat Rate and the Odds Heading Into April 28

GM reports earnings on April 28, 21 days away. The company carries one of the strongest earnings beat rates in the auto sector. Before that date, the historical data gives you a clear picture.

The Beat Rate

GM has beaten analyst estimates in 15 of its last 16 quarters. That is a 93.8% beat rate. One miss across four years of quarterly reports is a track record most companies cannot match.

What Happens After a Beat

After a beat, GM stock closes higher the next day 53.3% of the time. The average next-day move is 0.57%. Beats are real, but the immediate price reaction is measured, not explosive.

The Pattern

The counterintuitive stat is on the miss side. When GM has missed estimates, the stock has gone down the following session 0.0% of the time. Every miss in the dataset was followed by a flat or green next-day close.

Combined with a 93.8% beat rate, that data point reshapes how you think about downside risk heading into earnings. Even in the rare scenario where GM disappoints, the historical next-day response has not been a selloff. That is a different profile than most earnings plays.

The asymmetry cuts both ways. The upside after a beat is modest at 0.57% average. The downside after a miss has historically been zero. This is a low-volatility earnings profile with a strong directional bias.

What This Means for Traders

If you are asking should I trade GM earnings, here is what the data tells you.

First, the odds strongly favor a beat. At 93.8%, GM clears the bar nearly every quarter based on recent GM earnings history. Second, size your expectations on the upside. A 0.57% average next-day move means the market absorbs beats calmly, not aggressively. Third, the miss data changes the risk calculus. Zero percent of GM misses have produced a next-day decline, which means the traditional earnings fear trade does not have historical support here.

All three of these takeaways come directly from ChartOdds GM earnings odds tracking data.