HOOD Earnings History: 87.5% Beat Rate, Odds, and What Traders Actually Get

Robinhood (HOOD) reports earnings on April 28, 2026, 21 days away. Traders are already sizing up the setup. The historical data gives a clearer picture than most expect.

The Beat Rate

HOOD has beaten earnings estimates in 14 out of 16 quarters. That's an 87.5% beat rate, putting it among the more consistent reporters in fintech. The market has had a long time to price in this tendency.

Beat rate is the starting point, not the whole story. What matters is what happens after.

What Happens After a Beat

HOOD beats and the stock goes up the next day just 42.9% of the time. That's worse than a coin flip. The average next-day move after an earnings beat is 0.13%.

Beating estimates has not historically translated into next-day gains. The beat is priced in before the number drops, and when HOOD delivers, the reaction is muted.

The Pattern

The miss data tells a cleaner story. When HOOD misses estimates, the stock falls 100% of the time the next day. Misses have been rare, just 2 out of 16 quarters, but the direction has never been wrong.

The asymmetry is sharp. A beat produces an inconsistent, near-zero reaction. A miss produces a consistent, negative one. A high beat rate does not mean low risk around earnings.

With 87.5% of reports coming in above estimates, the market has learned to expect outperformance. That expectation compresses the upside when HOOD delivers and amplifies the shock when it doesn't.

What This Means for Traders

Three takeaways from the HOOD earnings data.

Do not trade the beat rate alone. At 0.13% average next-day move after a beat, the reward for being right is thin. HOOD beats 87.5% of the time and the stock barely moves.

Miss risk carries full weight. A 100% next-day decline rate after a miss is significant, even across a small sample of 2 occurrences. If HOOD misses on revenue or guidance, history says the stock pays for it without exception.

The edge here is not where most traders look. The beat rate is high but the upside capture is low, and the downside is binary. All data referenced in this article comes from ChartOdds, which tracks HOOD's full earnings history across all 16 reported quarters.