INTC Earnings History: Beat Rate, Odds, and What the Data Actually Says

Intel reports earnings on April 23, 2026. Few semiconductor stocks carry as much trader attention, and the historical data reveals a pattern that does not match the intuition most people bring to the trade. Before you build a position, look at what has actually happened.

The Beat Rate

INTC has beaten earnings estimates 11 times in the last 16 quarters. That is a 68.8% beat rate, well above average for large-cap tech. On paper, Intel is a consistent deliverer against analyst expectations. Two out of three quarters, the number comes in above consensus.

What Happens After a Beat

Here is where the data breaks from intuition. After a beat, INTC only closes higher the next day 45.5% of the time. The average next-day move following an earnings beat is -2.16%. Intel wins the estimate battle and still loses the price battle more often than not.

The Pattern

Three things stand out from 16 quarters of data. First, a high beat rate does not translate into a reliable long setup. Second, the -2.16% average post-beat move suggests the market prices in good results before the number drops. Third, the miss penalty is sharp and consistent: after a miss, INTC trades lower the next day 80.0% of the time.

What This Means for Traders

Do not size into INTC calls just because it beats 68.8% of the time. The post-beat drift is negative on average, which kills the edge on the long side. The miss scenario is far more predictable: 80.0% of misses result in a down day, making put exposure on a miss thesis more reliable than call exposure on a beat thesis. Run both scenarios through the full ChartOdds dataset before committing a position into the April 23 print.