LLY Earnings History: Beat Rate, Odds, and What the Data Says

Eli Lilly reports earnings on April 30, 23 days from now. With GLP-1 drugs driving one of the most closely watched revenue stories in pharma, every print moves the stock. Before you size a position, look at what the historical data actually shows.

The Beat Rate

LLY has beaten earnings estimates in 13 of the last 16 quarters. That is an 81.2% beat rate. Most large-cap stocks beat around 70% of the time, so LLY runs consistently above that baseline.

The consistency matters. Thirteen beats out of sixteen is not noise. It reflects either conservative guidance or consistent execution above expectations.

What Happens After a Beat

Beating does not guarantee a green day. LLY closes higher the next day after a beat 61.5% of the time. The average move after an earnings beat is 0.36%.

That 0.36% average is tighter than most traders expect. Options premiums around LLY earnings tend to price in larger swings. The realized move often underwhelms the implied move.

The Pattern

Three things stand out from LLY earnings history. The beat rate is high but the post-beat rally is not automatic, with 38.5% of beats still resulting in a down day.

Misses hit harder. After a miss, the stock drops 66.7% of the time. The average upside after a beat is just 0.36%, meaning the market prices in much of the good news before the print.

What This Means for Traders

One, LLY has a real directional edge on earnings. An 81.2% beat rate and 61.5% post-beat up days are not random. Two, the average post-beat move of 0.36% is small enough that buying options for the beat alone could be a losing trade after paying premium. Three, the miss penalty is steeper and more consistent than the beat reward, which means downside risk management matters more than the entry thesis. All numbers above come from ChartOdds historical earnings data for LLY.