MSFT Earnings History: Beat Rate, Odds, and What the Data Actually Shows

Microsoft reports next on 2026-04-29, 22 days from now. MSFT is one of the most-watched earnings events in the market each quarter. The data behind its track record is worth understanding before you take a position.

The Beat Rate

MSFT has beaten earnings estimates in 15 of its last 16 quarters. That is a 93.8% beat rate. Most large-cap companies beat around 70% of the time. MSFT is operating at a different level.

One miss in 16 quarters. That is not noise.

What Happens After a Beat

Here is where the MSFT earnings history gets counterintuitive. Despite a 93.8% beat rate, the stock only closes higher the next day 40.0% of the time after a beat.

The average next-day move following a beat is -0.83%. MSFT delivers the number, and the stock still drifts lower more often than not. The market prices in the win before the print lands.

The Pattern

Three things stand out from the historical data. The beat is nearly guaranteed, but the market has already baked it in. Post-beat selling pressure is the norm, not the exception.

The one miss on record did not produce a confirmed next-day decline. After a miss, the stock went down the following day 0.0% of the time. Small sample, but it holds.

Setup going into earnings matters more than the result itself. MSFT can beat by a wide margin and still close red the next session.

What This Means for Traders

First: buying long on the expectation of a beat is not a reliable edge. A 93.8% beat rate means the market already expects a beat. You are not getting paid for being right.

Second: the average post-beat move of -0.83% tells you the risk-reward for holding through earnings skews against you. The stock has to overcome that drift just to break even.

Third: size with the numbers in hand, not assumptions. ChartOdds tracks MSFT earnings beat rate, next-day direction odds, and historical averages so you know exactly what the data says before the next print on 2026-04-29.