NFLX Earnings History: 81.2% Beat Rate and What the Odds Actually Mean

Netflix reports on April 16, 2026. Nine days out, the historical setup is worth understanding before you size in. NFLX has one of the stronger beat rates in large-cap tech, but the post-earnings price action runs counter to what most traders assume.

The Beat Rate

Netflix has beaten earnings estimates in 13 of the last 16 quarters. That is an 81.2% NFLX earnings beat rate. When a company clears the bar four out of five times, the market starts pricing in the beat well before the print.

What Happens After a Beat

Here is the counterintuitive part of NFLX earnings history. Despite that 81.2% beat rate, the stock only closes higher the next day 46.2% of the time after a beat. The average next-day move following a beat is -0.45%. NFLX clears the bar and still drifts lower more often than it rallies.

The Pattern

Three things stand out from the NFLX earnings odds data. The market appears to price in the beat before it happens, leaving little room for post-print buyers. On misses, NFLX only falls the next day 33.3% of the time, meaning downside reactions are muted too. Both directions are compressed around earnings, which directly changes how you structure a position.

What This Means for Traders

First: buying NFLX into earnings expecting a beat to lift the stock is a weak thesis. The data says it works less than half the time even when the company beats. Second: a negative average move after a beat points to implied volatility being overstated relative to the realized move, which matters if you are pricing options. Third: if you are asking should I trade NFLX earnings on April 16, anchor your expected move to the historical probabilities in ChartOdds rather than narrative or consensus assumptions.