TGT Earnings History: Beat Rate, Odds, and What the Data Actually Shows

Target Corporation is one of the most-watched retail earnings events on the calendar. Traders track TGT not just for the stock move, but for what consumer spending signals it sends to the broader market. The next earnings date is May 20, 2026, which gives you 43 days to understand the setup.

The Beat Rate

TGT has beaten estimates in 10 of its last 16 quarters, a 62.5% beat rate. That clears the coin-flip threshold, but it is not dominant. You are looking at a stock that beats more often than it misses, but not by a commanding margin.

What Happens After a Beat

This is where the data gets counterintuitive. Despite that 62.5% beat rate, the stock only closes higher the next day 20.0% of the time following a beat. The average next-day move after a beat is -1.13%. Beating estimates has not translated into a green open for TGT shareholders.

The Pattern

Three things stand out from the TGT earnings history. The market has consistently sold the beat, and a 20% post-beat up-day rate is one of the lowest you will find in large-cap retail. On the miss side, TGT falls the next day 50% of the time after disappointing, making misses more directionally consistent than beats. The asymmetry is clear: this stock punishes misses more predictably than it rewards beats.

What This Means for Traders

Do not assume a beat equals a green day. The 20% post-beat up rate means TGT goes flat or red 80% of the time after a positive surprise, so buying calls into the print based on beat probability alone is a losing framework. The miss-side short is more consistent at 50% down-day follow-through, but that is still a coin flip and not a reliable edge on its own. Define your risk before the May 20 print and size for volatility, not direction. All of these probabilities come from ChartOdds historical earnings data for TGT across 16 quarters.