TSM Earnings History: 93.8% Beat Rate, But the Stock Still Drops

TSM reports on April 16, 2026. Nine days out. If you're sizing a position or pricing options, the historical data gives you a clear baseline to work from.

Sixteen quarters. One miss. The numbers are unusually clean for a stock this size.

The Beat Rate

TSM has beaten earnings estimates in 15 of the last 16 quarters. That puts the beat rate at 93.8%. At that frequency, a beat is not a surprise. It is the default expectation baked into every quarterly setup.

The lone miss is the outlier. The lone miss is also the most important data point in the table.

What Happens After a Beat

Here is where the TSM earnings trade gets counterintuitive. Despite a 93.8% beat rate, the stock only closes higher the next day 26.7% of the time after a beat. The average next-day move following an earnings beat is -0.67%.

TSM beats. The market sells it. That pattern has held across 15 quarters of outperformance. The stock is priced for perfection before the number drops.

The Pattern

Three things stand out from the historical data. First, TSM beats at an elite rate, but the price reaction is negative or flat in nearly three out of four post-beat sessions. Second, the market consistently front-runs the beat, which is why the average move after a beat is slightly negative. Third, when TSM misses, the selling is absolute: the stock has dropped the next day 100% of the time following a miss, no exceptions across 16 quarters.

What This Means for Traders

First: do not buy TSM into earnings expecting a next-day gap up. With a -0.67% average post-beat move and only a 26.7% chance the stock closes green the next day, the long-side momentum trade has poor historical odds.

Second: the asymmetry lives on the miss side. A 100% down-day rate following the one miss in 16 quarters means any guidance cut or revenue disappointment gets punished hard and fast. That tail risk deserves a hedge even if you believe in the beat.

Third: structure and timing matter more than direction here. The data points to a market that prices in TSM's consistency before the print, not after. Traders who account for that dynamic rather than buying the headline beat are working with the data. All figures here are sourced from ChartOdds, which tracks TSM earnings history across all 16 reported quarters.