TTD Earnings History: 81.2% Beat Rate, -6.27% Average Move After

The Trade Desk has one of the strongest earnings track records in ad tech. But the TTD earnings history reveals something most traders miss: beating estimates and getting rewarded for it are two very different things. With the next report 37 days out, here is what 16 quarters of data actually shows.

The Beat Rate

TTD earnings beat rate is 81.2%. That is 13 beats out of 16 quarters tracked by ChartOdds. Most S&P 500 companies beat around 70% of the time — TTD runs well above that baseline. Management consistently sets a bar they can clear.

A high beat rate tells you about guidance discipline. It does not tell you what happens to the stock.

What Happens After a Beat

This is where TTD earnings odds diverge from expectations. Despite that 81.2% beat rate, the stock only closes higher the next day 23.1% of the time after a beat. The average move following an earnings beat is -6.27%.

The market sells the news. Even when TTD delivers a clean quarter, the stock gives back ground the following session. Holding through the print expecting a reward has historically been the wrong trade.

After a miss, the next-day down rate is 0.0%. Misses are not punished the next session. That is the most counterintuitive number in the entire TTD earnings dataset.

The Pattern

Three things stand out from 16 quarters of TTD earnings history. First, the beat is already priced in before the number drops — the stock runs into the report, then resets lower regardless of the headline. Second, misses trigger a buy-the-dip response, not a selloff, suggesting traders treat pullbacks as entries in a high-conviction name. Third, the real risk around TTD earnings is not volatility magnitude — it is directional surprise.

The setup that looks safest, buying a confirmed beat, is the one with the worst historical return. The setup that looks riskiest, holding through a miss, has not produced a next-day loss in the tracked dataset.

What This Means for Traders

Should you trade TTD earnings? Three sharp takeaways from the data.

One: Do not buy the beat. A -6.27% average next-day move after a positive surprise means the reflex long is a trap. The data does not support chasing the print.

Two: Do not short the miss. A 0.0% next-day down rate after misses means there is no historical edge fading a bad quarter. The crowd absorbs the miss and bids it back.

Three: The edge is knowing what TTD earnings odds actually look like before you size in. The next report is May 14, 2026 — use the full TTD earnings history on ChartOdds to build your thesis from real numbers, not assumptions.