WMT Earnings History: Beat Rate, Odds, and What the Data Says

Walmart is one of the most widely held stocks in the market. Every quarter, its earnings move portfolios. Knowing WMT's historical earnings patterns gives you a real edge before the report hits.

The Beat Rate

WMT has beaten earnings estimates 13 out of 16 quarters tracked. That is an 81.2% beat rate. For a mega-cap retailer operating in a low-margin, high-scrutiny business, that level of consistency is not random.

What Happens After a Beat

A beat does not guarantee a green day. WMT stock rises the next day after an earnings beat only 53.8% of the time. The average move after a beat is -0.29%, meaning the market tends to fade the good news rather than reward it.

What Happens After a Miss

The miss side is one-directional. WMT stock has closed lower the next day 100% of the time following an earnings miss. No exceptions across the historical sample.

The Pattern

Three things stand out from WMT's earnings history. First, the beat rate is high, but the post-beat direction is nearly a coin flip at 53.8%. Second, the average post-beat move of -0.29% signals the stock is often priced for perfection going into the report. Third, misses carry fully asymmetric downside, with a 100% next-day loss rate across every quarter in the dataset.

What This Means for Traders

Do not assume a beat translates to a rally. With a 53.8% up-day rate after beats and a negative average move, the long-into-earnings setup on WMT is thin on edge. If you are positioning around a potential miss, history offers no ambiguity: every WMT earnings miss on record produced a next-day decline. WMT next reports on 2026-05-21, 44 days away. All figures above are sourced directly from ChartOdds, where you can verify WMT's full earnings history and run the same analysis on any ticker before the next report.