XOM Earnings History: Beat Rate, Odds, and What the Data Actually Says

Exxon Mobil reports on May 1, 2026, now 24 days away. With 16 quarters of ChartOdds data on the books, the XOM earnings pattern is specific enough to act on. The headline beat rate is only half the picture.

The Beat Rate

XOM beats earnings estimates 68.8% of the time. That is 11 beats out of 16 quarters tracked. For an energy major whose revenue is tied to commodity price swings, that consistency is notable. The street underestimates Exxon more often than not.

What Happens After a Beat

Here is where the data gets useful. Despite beating 68.8% of the time, XOM only closes higher the next day 18.2% of the time after a beat. The average move following an earnings beat is -1.19%. The stock gets sold into good news.

That gap between beat frequency and next-day direction is the defining feature of XOM earnings. Clearing the bar does not move the stock higher.

The Pattern

Three things stand out from the historical record. First, XOM's next-day reaction is largely disconnected from the earnings result. Beating consensus does not produce reliable follow-through buying.

Second, the miss data is equally striking. After a miss, XOM goes down the next day 0.0% of the time. The market is pricing in downside before the print, not after. Misses are not punishing the stock.

Third, both the beat and miss reaction data converge on the same conclusion: XOM earnings are a non-event for next-day direction. The headline number has not been driving follow-through in either direction.

What This Means for Traders

Do not buy XOM expecting a pop after a beat. An 18.2% up-rate and a -1.19% average move after beats means the trade loses more than four times out of five. History is clear on this.

Do not short XOM into a miss either. A 0.0% next-day down-rate after misses is as direct a warning as earnings data produces. The selloff trade has not worked.

The edge here is fading the volatility premium around the event, not chasing direction. All of this comes from 16 quarters of verified XOM earnings data on ChartOdds.